In the most volatile flare-up between India and Pakistan in years, a deadly militant attack in Kashmir has triggered a cascade of military strikes, aerial dogfights, and a fragile ceasefire that teeters on the brink of collapse.

A Massacre in Kashmir Ignites Regional Crisis

The crisis erupted on April 22, when gunmen killed 26 Hindu pilgrims in Pahalgam, a town in Indian-administered Kashmir. The Resistance Front, a group linked to the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility. India accused Pakistan of harboring the militants, a charge Islamabad denies.

In response, India launched “Operation Sindoor” on May 7, a series of precision strikes targeting militant camps across Pakistani-administered Kashmir and Pakistan’s Punjab province. The Indian Air Force employed Rafale jets armed with SCALP missiles and Hammer bombs, reportedly killing over 100 militants, including senior figures from Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Wikipedia

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Air Combat and Drone Warfare Escalate

The conflict quickly escalated into one of the largest aerial engagements since the Gulf War. On May 7, over 125 fighter jets from both sides clashed along the Line of Control. India lost several aircraft, including three Rafale jets, marking the first combat losses for the French-made warplanes. Pakistan claimed to have downed the jets using Chinese-made Chengdu J-10 fighters. Wikipedia

Both nations also engaged in extensive drone warfare. Pakistan reported shooting down 77 Israeli-made Harop drones deployed by India, while India utilized its S-400 missile defense system to intercept Pakistani drones targeting cities like Amritsar.

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Ceasefire Brokered Amid Ongoing Skirmishes

On May 10, a ceasefire was announced, brokered primarily by the United States with support from the UK and China. President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio played key roles in mediating the truce.

However, the ceasefire’s stability remains uncertain. Hours after the agreement, explosions were reported in Kashmir, Srinagar, Peshawar, and Karachi. Both sides accused each other of violating the truce.

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Diplomatic Strains and Treaty Suspensions

In a significant diplomatic move, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty on April 23, citing national security concerns and accusing Pakistan of supporting terrorism. The treaty, in place since 1960, had governed water sharing between the two nations. Pakistan reported a 90% drop in water flow from the Chenab River and warned that any attempt to disrupt water supplies could be considered an act of war.

Additionally, both countries expelled diplomats, closed border crossings, and suspended visa services, further straining bilateral relations. Wikipedia

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Civilian Impact and Regional Concerns

The conflict has had severe repercussions for civilians. In Pakistan’s Punjab province, schools and colleges were closed, and board examinations postponed. In India, at least 25 airports in the north and west were shut down, and civil operations at Srinagar Airport were halted indefinitely. Wikipedia

The international community remains deeply concerned about the potential for further escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. While diplomatic efforts continue, the situation underscores the fragility of peace in the region and the urgent need for sustained dialogue.